The Kent State Golden Flashes will visit the Sacramento State Hornets on Friday night in the first-ever meeting between the two programs. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30 p.m. ET at Hornet Stadium in Sacramento, California.
Sacramento State (1-7, 0-5 MAC) is in its first season at the FBS level and has lost six consecutive games, most recently a 34-17 defeat to Ball State. Kent State (3-5, 2-2 MAC) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 35-20 victory over Akron in Week 8.
Odds and Predictions
Kent State enters as a 7-point favorite, with the over/under set at 46.5 points. The Golden Flashes are listed at -278 on the money line, while the Hornets are +225.
Model Analysis
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each FBS game 10,000 times, projects the total to exceed 46.5 points in 63% of simulations, with a combined score projection of 51 points. The model notes that when the total is below 50, the over has a 3-1 record for both teams this season. Kent State has seen the over hit in three of its last four road games, and the total was surpassed in Sacramento State's most recent home game.
Defensive struggles support the high-scoring projection. Kent State ranks 115th among 138 FBS teams in scoring defense, while Sacramento State ranks 127th. The Hornets have generated the fewest takeaways in college football aside from two other teams, and Kent State allows a 67.4% completion percentage, the eighth-highest in the nation.
The model also indicates one side of the spread hits in nearly 70% of simulations. That specific pick is available through SportsLine. The model entered Week 9 on a 68-59 run on top-rated college football picks.
