The Indianapolis Colts have begun a full-scale rebuild, trading eight-time Pro Bowl guard Quenton Nelson to the Seattle Seahawks and three-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle DeForest Buckner to the San Francisco 49ers for three future draft picks, none earlier than the third round. The moves follow the firing of longtime general manager Chris Ballard and come with the team at 2-5.
However, the Colts face a significant obstacle: they traded their 2026 and 2027 first-round picks, along with wide receiver Adonai Mitchell, to the New York Jets in November 2023 for cornerback Sauce Gardner. As a result, Indianapolis will not have a first-round selection in either draft, meaning the worse the Colts perform, the more valuable the Jets' picks become.
Rebuild comparisons
The article examines five recent NFL rebuilds for perspective: the 2019 Miami Dolphins, 2022 Chicago Bears, 2023 Washington Commanders, 2022 Carolina Panthers, and 2017 Buffalo Bills. Each eventually used a top-seven draft pick on a quarterback, a resource the Colts lack in 2027 unless they acquire another first-round pick.
The Dolphins collected multiple first-round picks but have yet to achieve postseason success despite selecting Tua Tagovailoa fifth overall in 2020. The Bears traded the No. 1 overall pick in 2023 for a package including the Carolina Panthers' 2024 first-rounder, which they used to select Caleb Williams first overall in 2024. The Commanders traded Montez Sweat and Chase Young, then used the No. 2 overall pick on Jayden Daniels, reaching the NFC championship game in 2024 before regressing in 2025. The Panthers traded Christian McCaffrey and spent heavily to move up for Bryce Young, enduring several losing seasons before showing progress in 2026. The Bills, under new leadership, traded veterans but remained competitive, then moved up to select Josh Allen seventh overall in 2018, leading to sustained contention.
The Colts' situation differs because they have already surrendered the premium draft capital that facilitated those rebuilds. General manager Chris Ballard is gone, head coach Shane Steichen remains, and Daniel Jones is the current starting quarterback. The team's 2023 first-round pick, Anthony Richardson, has not developed as hoped and is currently on the bench. Indianapolis holds eight selections in the 2027 draft, including two third-rounders and two fourth-rounders, but no first-rounder. The organization retains its 2028 first-round pick and could acquire more via trades, but the path to a franchise quarterback is considerably narrower.
