The Baylor Bears and Central Florida Knights meet in a key Big 12 Conference game on Friday night at Acrisure Bounce House in Orlando, Florida. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Both teams enter with identical 4-3 overall records and 2-2 conference marks, leaving them tied with Cincinnati and Arizona State for seventh place in the standings.
Baylor arrives after a 25-24 loss at Kansas, while UCF earned a controversial 39-31 overtime victory over BYU. The Bears are 1-1 on the road this season; the Knights are 4-0 at home in 2026. Baylor leads the all-time series 2-1, including a 30-3 win last year.
Betting Odds
Baylor opens as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 48.5 points. The money line lists Baylor at -130 and UCF at +110. Both teams are 5-2 against the spread this season.
Model Predictions
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each FBS game 10,000 times, projects the game to go over the 48.5-point total. The over has hit in two of the three all-time meetings and is 6-4 in UCF's last 10 games. UCF averages 32.7 points per game, while Baylor averages 29.1. The model forecasts Baylor quarterback D.J. Lagway to throw for more than 260 yards and two touchdowns, and UCF quarterback Keyone Jenkins to exceed 210 yards and two scores. The simulation yields a projected 54 combined points, with the over rated as a 63% value play. The model also indicates one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. Entering Week 9, the model carries a 68-59 record on top-rated college football picks, returning nearly $400 for $100 players.
