Tom Fornelli's weekly CFP Vibe Check examines the shifting College Football Playoff landscape after a weekend of upsets and close calls.
Ohio State's Survival Mode
No. 2 Ohio State fell 30-18 at USC, marking the Buckeyes' second loss of the season and drastically thinning their margin for error. Freshman quarterback Luke Fahey struggled with overthrows, presnap penalties, and pressure in his first start. Ohio State has never finished a CFP season ranked lower than No. 7, but a 9-3 record may not be enough for the 12-team field. The Buckeyes host an improving Oregon team next week.
USC's Playoff Case
The Trojans' win boosted their DraftKings playoff odds from +1900 (5%) to +300 (25%), but a road game at No. 4 Indiana and a season finale against undefeated UCLA loom large. A 9-3 record with a loss to Wisconsin may not suffice.
Wake Forest's Dominance
No. 14 Wake Forest routed Virginia 51-7, winning their last four games by a combined 187-31. Despite lacking a signature win, the Demon Deacons have consistently dominated inferior opponents, a rarity this season.
Miami's Vulnerabilities
No. 1 Miami survived a 38-35 scare against North Carolina, trailing in both the third and fourth quarters. The Canes' defense has allowed four touchdown passes in consecutive weeks, raising concerns ahead of a matchup with No. 5 Notre Dame.
Big 12 Clarity
No. 6 Utah crushed Cincinnati 49-25 to stay undefeated, holding a 70.6% implied chance to make the playoff. Texas Tech rebounded with a 34-26 win over Arizona, while Iowa State upset Oklahoma State 51-49.
Group of 6 Drama
No. 29 Boise State rallied from a 36-point second-half deficit to beat Texas State 46-45 after quarterback Maddux Madsen left injured. Backup Max Cutforth threw for 131 yards and three touchdowns in a quarter and a half.
Eliminated Teams and Upcoming Key Games
Playoff hopes ended for Auburn, Cincinnati, James Madison, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Oregon State, UCF, and Wisconsin. Next week's pivotal matchups include Miami at Notre Dame, BYU at Utah, Alabama at LSU, Georgia at Ole Miss, and Oregon at Ohio State.
