The Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) will face the Baltimore Ravens (4-4) on Thursday Night Football at M&T Bank Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET.
Jacksonville enters on a high note after a 42-7 victory over the Indianapolis Colts, while Baltimore is coming off a 36-10 loss at Buffalo.
The Ravens are dealing with significant quarterback injuries. Starter Lamar Jackson (thumb) and backup Tyler Huntley (toe) are both ruled out, leaving rookie third-stringer Joe Fagnano to make his first NFL start.
Oddsmakers have installed the Jaguars as 10-point favorites, with the over/under set at 40 points. The money line lists Jacksonville at -521 and Baltimore at +400.
A proven simulation model that runs 10,000 iterations per game projects the total points to exceed 40. The model notes that the over has hit in three of the last four head-to-head meetings, in each of Jacksonville's last two games, and in six of Baltimore's last 10 games. It projects 48 combined points, with the over hitting in 60% of simulations.
Offensively, Jacksonville is led by quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who has completed 65.7% of his passes for 1,690 yards and 17 touchdowns with four interceptions in seven starts. Running back Bhayshul Tuten has carried 110 times for 492 yards and three touchdowns.
Baltimore's attack revolves around running back Derrick Henry, who has rushed 158 times for 632 yards and eight touchdowns in eight games.
The model also identifies one side of the spread as offering better value, though specific details are available through the model's full analysis.
