A proven computer simulation model has released a six-leg longshot parlay for NFL Week 8 that could return over $1.2 million on a $10 wager. The model, which simulates each game 10,000 times, has generated more than $5,000 in profit for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception and enters Week 8 of the 2026 season on a 58-51 run on top-rated selections dating back to 2024.
Among the notable trends, the Indianapolis Colts have scored the first touchdown in each of their last 13 games as road underdogs. Visiting Jacksonville as 10-point underdogs, a Colts first touchdown carries odds of +441, while a Colts field goal is +402 and a Jaguars field goal +324. Despite the early scoring trend, Indianapolis is just 3-10 straight-up over that 13-game span, opening the possibility of a parlay leg backing the Colts to score first and lose on the money line at +265.
Other first-scoring-play props with sizable payouts include a Tennessee Titans touchdown at +429 against Cincinnati (12.5-point underdogs) and a Miami Dolphins touchdown at +333 versus New England (Dolphins +7).
Buccaneers-Falcons highlight
One of the six parlay legs backs the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 1-6 points over the Atlanta Falcons at +290. The last six meetings between the teams have all been decided by 1-6 points, and the game in Tampa presents a significant disadvantage for Atlanta. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has a 15:4 touchdown-to-turnover ratio at home compared to 8:6 on the road. The Buccaneers scored 43 points against Carolina last week with Baker Mayfield returning to the lineup, while the Falcons could be without starting cornerbacks A.J. Terrell and C.J. Henderson due to groin injuries. Tampa Bay ranks second in run defense and third in run offense, and running back Bijan Robinson has averaged just 46.3 rushing yards per game against the Buccaneers, his lowest against any opponent faced multiple times. The model's simulations project a Buccaneers victory by three points.
The parlay also includes five additional Week 8 selections from the model, among them a touchdown scorer prop priced at +2500.
