The Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) aim to extend their winning streak to five victories in six games when they face the Baltimore Ravens (4-4) on Thursday Night Football. Jacksonville arrives after a dominant 42-7 win over the Indianapolis Colts, while Baltimore suffered a 36-10 loss at Buffalo on Sunday.
Quarterback Injuries Force Rookie Start
The Ravens are dealing with a rash of injuries at quarterback. Starter Lamar Jackson (thumb) and backup Tyler Huntley (toe) are both ruled out, leaving rookie third-stringer Joe Fagnano to make his first NFL start. On the Jaguars side, running back Bhayshul Tuten is active after being listed as questionable with foot and ankle injuries.
Betting Odds and Lines
Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. The Jaguars are a 9.5-point favorite, marking the largest road favorite of the 2026 NFL season. The over/under for total points opened at 48.5 but has dropped to 39.5 due to the Ravens' quarterback situation. The money line lists Jacksonville at -455 and Baltimore at +350.
Model Predictions and Trends
A proven simulation model that runs 10,000 iterations per game has shown strong historical performance, returning over $5,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. Entering Week 9 of the 2026 season, the model holds a 60-51 record on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. For this matchup, the model favors the Over 39.5 points, a trend supported by the Over hitting in three of the last four head-to-head meetings, in each of Jacksonville's last two games, and in six of Baltimore's last 10 games. Additionally, the Over is 2-1 in Jaguars games when the line is under 45 points.
Key Offensive Players
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence leads Jacksonville's offense, completing 65.7% of his passes for 1,690 yards with 17 touchdowns and four interceptions in seven starts. Running back Bhayshul Tuten paces the ground attack with 110 carries for 492 yards and three touchdowns. For Baltimore, running back Derrick Henry has carried 158 times for 632 yards and eight touchdowns in eight games.
Projected Outcome
The model projects 47 combined points, with the Over hitting in 64% of simulations. The model also identifies one side of the spread as offering better value, though the specific side is not disclosed here.
