The Massachusetts Minutemen aim to end a four-game losing streak when they host the Ball State Cardinals in a Mid-American Conference matchup Wednesday at 7 p.m. ET at Warren P. McGuirk Alumni Stadium in Hadley, Mass.
Ball State (3-5, 2-2 MAC) enters after a 34-17 win over Sacramento State on Oct. 24, while UMass (4-4, 1-3 MAC) lost 35-16 at Connecticut on Oct. 23. The Cardinals are 1-4 on the road; the Minutemen are 2-2 at home in 2026.
UMass is a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 48.5 points. The money line has UMass at -113 and Ball State at +118.
The SportsLine Projection Model, after 10,000 simulations, favors the over 48.5 points, which has hit in eight of the last 10 Ball State games. The model projects 52 combined points, with the over hitting 57% of the time.
Quarterback projections: Ball State's Keldric Luster is expected to throw for over 200 yards and a touchdown (1,300 yards, 9 TDs season). UMass's William Watson III is projected for over 225 yards and two scores (1,025 yards, 8 TDs season).
The model also indicates one side of the spread hits in nearly 70% of simulations. SportsLine's model entered Week 10 on an 80-77 run on top-rated college football picks.
