The Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) aim to win for the fifth time in six games when they face the Baltimore Ravens (4-4) on Thursday Night Football. Jacksonville is coming off a 42-7 victory over the Indianapolis Colts, while Baltimore lost 36-10 to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday.
The Ravens are dealing with significant quarterback injuries. Lamar Jackson (thumb) and Tyler Huntley (toe) are both out, leaving rookie third-stringer Joe Fagnano to make his first start. Jaguars running back Bhayshul Tuten is active after being listed as questionable with foot and ankle injuries.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. The latest odds have Jacksonville as a 9.5-point favorite, making the Jaguars the biggest road favorite of the 2026 NFL season. The over/under for total points is 39.5, down from an opening line of 48.5 due to the Baltimore quarterback situation.
A proven predictive model that simulates every NFL game 10,000 times has identified value in this matchup. The model, which has returned more than $5,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, entered Week 9 on a 60-51 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. After 10,000 simulations of Jaguars vs. Ravens, the model projects the Over 39.5 points to hit. The Over has cashed in three of the last four head-to-head meetings, in each of Jacksonville's last two games, and in six of Baltimore's last 10 games. It is also 2-1 in Jaguars games when the total is under 45 points.
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence leads the Jacksonville offense, completing 65.7% of his passes for 1,690 yards with 17 touchdowns and four interceptions in seven starts. Running back Bhayshul Tuten paces the ground attack with 110 carries for 492 yards and three touchdowns. For Baltimore, running back Derrick Henry has carried 158 times for 632 yards and eight touchdowns in eight games.
The model projects 47 combined points, with the Over hitting in 64% of simulations. Additionally, the model indicates one side of the spread offers better value, though the specific side is not disclosed in the public analysis.
