The Massachusetts Minutemen aim to end a four-game losing streak when they host the Ball State Cardinals in a Mid-American Conference showdown Wednesday at 7 p.m. ET at Warren P. McGuirk Alumni Stadium in Hadley, Massachusetts.
Ball State (3-5, 2-2 MAC) enters after a 34-17 victory over Sacramento State on Oct. 24, while UMass (4-4, 1-3 MAC) fell 35-16 at Connecticut on Oct. 23. The Cardinals are 1-4 on the road this season; the Minutemen are 2-2 at home.
UMass opens as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 48.5 points. The money line lists UMass at -113 and Ball State at +118.
A projection model simulating the game 10,000 times favors the over on the total, citing both teams' offensive production. Massachusetts ranks fourth in the MAC in scoring at 26.5 points per game, while Ball State sits seventh. The Cardinals' defense allows a conference-worst 35.3 points per game.
The model projects Ball State quarterback Keldric Luster to throw for over 200 yards and a touchdown (1,300 yards, nine touchdowns on the season) and UMass quarterback William Watson III to exceed 225 yards and two scores (1,025 yards, eight touchdowns). The simulation predicts 52 combined points, with the over hitting in 57% of simulations.
The model also indicates one side of the spread hits in nearly 70% of simulations. Detailed spread and money-line picks are available via subscription services.
