Notre Dame sits at No. 11 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, making Saturday's matchup against No. 1 Miami a must-win game for the Fighting Irish's postseason hopes. The contest also represents the most significant moment of quarterback CJ Carr's career, as he looks to answer questions about his ability to perform against elite competition.
Carr's season statistics
Carr has been one of the steadiest quarterbacks in college football this season, completing 67% of his passes with an 18-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His 82.7 QBR ranks eighth nationally when adjusted for competition. However, in Notre Dame's lone quality matchup against No. 9 BYU, Carr completed just 55% of his passes (27-for-49), the lowest completion percentage of his career on his highest pass-attempt total. A stretch of 7-of-17 passing in the second and third quarters allowed BYU to build a double-digit lead in Provo.
Struggles against ranked opponents
The junior's production drops noticeably against ranked teams. In five games versus ranked opponents, Carr has completed 60.9% of his passes for 224.6 yards per game and 6.6 yards per attempt, with six touchdowns and five interceptions. Against unranked competition (15 games), those numbers rise to 69.4% completion, 231.1 yards per game, 10.0 yards per attempt, 36 touchdowns and two interceptions. Notre Dame's offense also struggled to generate big plays against BYU, with Carr completing only 30% of passes thrown more than 10 yards downfield, while receivers failed to create separation against the Cougars' defensive backs.
Miami's vulnerable passing defense
While Miami boasts the nation's top rushing defense, its passing defense ranks 122nd nationally, allowing 251.9 yards per game and 7.1 yards per attempt. Recent opponents have exploited this weakness: North Carolina's Billy Edwards Jr. completed 82% of his passes for 341 yards, four touchdowns and 10.0 yards per attempt; Florida State threw for 298 yards and four touchdowns in a double-overtime loss; and Pittsburgh quarterbacks combined for 334 yards and two touchdowns. Statistically, this is one of the weakest passing defenses Carr has faced in his career.
Draft implications
Carr is rated the No. 10 overall player in the CBS Sports NFL Draft Prospect Rankings and could become Notre Dame's first first-round quarterback since Brady Quinn in 2007 and the first top-10 pick at the position since Rick Mirer in 1993. However, he is 0-2 against College Football Playoff teams from last season and 0-1 against projected CFP participant BYU. With Notre Dame's season and his own NFL future on the line, Saturday's game offers Carr the chance to prove he can elevate an offense against the best competition.
