The Denver Nuggets will face the Indiana Pacers in the 2026 NBA Mexico City Game on Saturday at Arena CDMX, with tipoff scheduled for 5 p.m. ET. This marks the 16th NBA regular-season game played in Mexico and the only one on the 2026-27 schedule.
Denver enters at 4-3, while Indiana sits at 3-6. The Nuggets are 7.5-point favorites with an over/under of 228.5 points; the money line lists Denver at -268 and Indiana at +230.
Pacers injury report: T.J. McConnell (hamstring) and Kelly Oubre Jr. (calf) are questionable, while Tyrese Haliburton (hamstring) is ruled out.
A projection model simulating the matchup 10,000 times favors the over on the total. Denver averages 115.4 points per game and has cleared the over in four of seven contests this season, including two of the last three. The teams combined for an average of 236 points in their two meetings last season. The model projects Nikola Jokic to score 26.1 points, Jamal Murray 22.8, and Pascal Siakam 21.9 for Indiana, with a projected combined total of 238 points and the over hitting in 62% of simulations.
The model also indicates one side of the spread covers in more than 50% of simulations.
