The No. 6 Kentucky Wildcats (7-1) visit the No. 13 Tennessee Volunteers (6-2) on Saturday at 6:15 p.m. ET in Knoxville. Kentucky is enjoying its highest ranking ever under first-year head coach Will Stein, while Tennessee saw its College Football Playoff hopes dented by a 27-24 loss at South Carolina last week.
Tennessee enters as a 6-point home favorite with an over/under of 49.5 points. The money line has Kentucky at +170 and Tennessee at -205.
Kentucky has won six straight since a 45-17 loss to Alabama in Week 2, including victories over ranked Texas A&M and LSU. The Wildcats are coming off a bye week after a 34-27 win over Vanderbilt. Quarterback Kenny Minchey has completed 69% of his passes for 1,755 yards, 14 touchdowns, and one interception, while the running back trio of CJ Baxter, Jason Patterson, and Jovantae Barnes each average over 5 yards per carry. Baxter leads with 487 yards and eight touchdowns.
Tennessee's offense also relies heavily on the run, averaging 213 rushing yards per game, second in the SEC. Running back DeSean Bishop ranks sixth nationally with 957 yards and 11 touchdowns, with four consecutive 100-yard games. Quarterback George MacIntyre has started the past four games but has thrown five interceptions; Faizon Brandon, who has accounted for 10 touchdowns, may also see action despite a shoulder injury.
Defensively, Tennessee ranks fourth in the SEC in yards allowed (288.4 ypg) and third in scoring defense (16.3 ppg), while Kentucky allows 24.8 points and 362.6 yards per game. Kentucky holds a significant turnover margin advantage at plus-13 (fourth nationally) compared to Tennessee's plus-3. The Volunteers lead the FBS with 35 sacks, led by Tyree Weathersby's seven.
Betting trends show Kentucky has covered the spread in every game except the Alabama loss, with five of eight games going over the total. Tennessee has seen the under hit in six of eight games, including all five home games. The SportsLine Projection Model gives Tennessee a 67% win probability and a 53% cover rate, but its top play is the under 49.5, which it projects to hit 59.8% of the time with a predicted final score of 27-19. Expert Eric Cohen also backs the under, citing the uncertain quarterback situation for Tennessee and predicting a 20-14 Volunteers victory.
