The NFL survivor pool saw several upsets in the previous week, with Dallas, Minnesota, Kansas City, and the New York Jets all losing. The Cowboys had entered as 7.5-point favorites over the Cardinals. Survivor Revival pools offer a second chance for eliminated players. With two teams on a bye, Week 9 features only 15 games.
Key spread movements and popular alternatives
The Cardinals vs. Seahawks matchup carried the week's largest spread at -12.5 earlier, but it dropped to -8.5 after Sam Darnold was ruled out with a quad injury and Gardner Minshew replaced Jacoby Brissett for Arizona. Many participants have already used the Seahawks, prompting consideration of other favorites such as the Texans (-6) against a Chargers team on a 10-game losing streak, or the 49ers (-9.5) over the Raiders. San Francisco holds an 8-1 outright record in its last nine post-bye games.
Projection model performance and Week 9 selection
An advanced computer model that simulates every NFL game 10,000 times has returned more than $5,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 9 of the 2026 NFL season on a 60-51 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. It has now locked in its Week 9 survivor pool pick, backing a team that wins outright in nearly 80% of simulations.
Patriots vs. Packers breakdown
The model expresses low confidence in the 5-3 New England Patriots, who are 3-point and -164 money-line favorites against the 5-3 Green Bay Packers at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass., on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET. New England is coming off one-score performances, including a 24-19 win over the 1-6 Miami Dolphins in Week 8 after trailing 13-3 at halftime. Green Bay is 2-2 on the road, led by veteran quarterback Jordan Love, who has completed 61.5% of his passes for 2,246 yards, 16 touchdowns, and six interceptions despite the Packers leading the league in dropped passes. Top targets Christian Watson (42 receptions, 708 yards, six touchdowns) and Matthew Golden (43 catches, 619 yards, four touchdowns) anchor the passing attack. The Patriots, led by quarterback Drake Maye (67.1% completion, 1,983 yards, 15 touchdowns, eight interceptions in eight starts), will be without receiver A.J. Brown (knee) and running back TreVeyon Henderson (illness). The model projects New England winning by just a point, suggesting several other favorites are stronger plays.
The model's top Week 9 survivor pick is a team many participants have not yet used, with a near-80% simulated win probability. The selection is available through the model's subscription service.
