The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race takes place Sunday at 3 p.m. ET at Homestead-Miami Speedway, with the title to be decided among three drivers: Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, and Denny Hamlin.
Championship Contenders and Odds
Larson enters with a 67-point lead over Bell and a 70-point advantage over Hamlin, making them the only three mathematically eligible for the championship. Larson is the +410 betting favorite, followed by Hamlin at +600, Bell at +650, Ryan Blaney at +700, and Tyler Reddick at +750. William Byron, who won last week at Martinsville, is at +1100. Chase Briscoe will start from the pole after qualifying with a time of 32.396 seconds.
Model Predictions
DFS expert Mike McClure's simulation model, which has predicted 34 winners since 2021, suggests fading Larson despite his favorite status. The model projects Larson to barely crack the top five, citing his recent struggles at comparable tracks and the possibility he may race conservatively given his points cushion. Conversely, the model highlights Ty Gibbs at +1700, noting his third-place finish last week and Joe Gibbs Racing's record nine victories at Homestead. Gibbs has two wins and 13 top-five finishes this season. The model also backs two other longshots at +2000 or longer.
