A computer model that simulates every NFL game 10,000 times has unveiled its five best bets for Week 9 of the 2026 season. The model, which has returned more than $5,000 for $100 players on top-rated picks since its inception, entered the week on a 60-51 run on top-rated selections dating back to 2024. A successful parlay of the five picks would yield a payout of nearly +3000.
Key Week 9 Matchups
The Minnesota Vikings, the last unbeaten team, are 3-point home underdogs against the AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football. The 6-1 San Francisco 49ers host the Las Vegas Raiders as 10-point favorites. The Arizona Cardinals visit the Seattle Seahawks in an NFC West rivalry game where the line has moved several points after news that quarterback Sam Darnold (quad) will not play. Gardner Minshew will start for Arizona after the Cardinals rallied from 14 points down to defeat the Dallas Cowboys 33-30 in overtime in Week 8. Other notable games include the Los Angeles Rams vs. Washington Commanders (+4.5), Houston Texans vs. Los Angeles Chargers (+5.5), and Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Chicago Bears (-6) on Sunday Night Football. The Chargers have lost 10 consecutive games dating back to last season.
Model's Top Pick: Cardinals vs. Seahawks Over 39.5
The model's highest-confidence selection is the Over 39.5 points in the Cardinals-Seahawks matchup, which hits in 76% of simulations. The Over has cashed in six of Arizona's last 10 games and three of Seattle's last five. Seattle's offense ranks 11th in scoring at 24.0 points per game, while Arizona averages 21.9 points (21st). With Darnold out, Drew Lock takes over for Seattle; Lock previously led the team to 31 points in a start this season and will target receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (64 receptions, 985 yards, 9 touchdowns). Arizona's offense features running back Tyler Allgeier (72 carries, 323 yards, 2 touchdowns) and tight end Trey McBride (66 receptions, 544 yards, 5 touchdowns). Allgeier rushed for 147 yards and a touchdown in the win over Dallas.
Other Parlay Selections
The model also identified four additional games where it believes the betting line is significantly off, including multiple spread picks that hit well over 50% of the time in simulations. The specific details of those four picks are available through the model's full Week 9 analysis.
