A proven computer simulation model from SportsLine has unveiled a six-leg longshot parlay for NFL Week 8 that could return over $1.2 million on a $10 wager. The model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, enters the 2026 season's eighth week on a 58-51 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024 and has generated more than $5,000 in profit for $100 players since its inception.
Colts Road Trends Highlight Early Scoring Value
The Indianapolis Colts enter Sunday's game at Jacksonville as 10-point underdogs. Notably, Indianapolis has scored the game's first touchdown in each of its last 13 games as a road underdog under head coach Shane Steichen. A Colts first touchdown offers a +383 payout, while an Indianapolis field goal as the first score is +392 and a Jacksonville field goal is +321. Despite the early scoring trend, the Colts are just 3-10 straight-up over that 13-game span, making a parlay leg of Indianapolis scoring first and losing on the money line an intriguing +265 proposition.
Other Notable First-Score Props
Additional longshot first-scoring-play options include a Tennessee Titans touchdown at +429 against the Cincinnati Bengals and a Miami Dolphins touchdown at +333 versus the New England Patriots.
Buccaneers-Falcons Matchup Anchors Parlay
One of the six parlay legs backs the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to defeat the Atlanta Falcons by 1-6 points at +290 odds. The last six meetings between the NFC South rivals have all been decided by that margin, and the game in Tampa presents a significant road challenge for Atlanta. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has a 15:4 touchdown-to-turnover ratio at home compared to 8:6 on the road. Tampa Bay's offense erupted for 43 points against Carolina last week in Baker Mayfield's return, and wide receiver Emeka Egbuka could rejoin the lineup. The Buccaneers boast the NFL's No. 2 run defense and No. 3 run offense, which should limit Falcons running back Bijan Robinson, who averages just 46.3 rushing yards per game against Tampa Bay — his lowest against any opponent faced multiple times. The model's simulations project a three-point Buccaneers victory.
The full six-leg parlay includes five additional Week 8 selections, among them a touchdown scorer prop priced at +2500. All picks are available exclusively through SportsLine.
