As the NFL reaches Week 8 of the 2026 season, betting trends show that heavy favorites have struggled to cover the spread. Favorites of -6 or more are just 8-21-3 against the spread this season, covering only 27.5% of the time. Five games this week meet that threshold: Jacksonville Jaguars (-10) vs. Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys (-7) vs. Arizona Cardinals, Cincinnati Bengals (-12.5) vs. Tennessee Titans, Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers, and New England Patriots (-7) vs. Miami Dolphins.
Chiefs-Broncos Under Trend Continues
Another notable trend involves the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos. Each of their last seven meetings has gone under the total. This week, Kansas City is favored by 1.5 points with a total of 41.5. If the trend holds, bettors may want to avoid player props and fantasy options involving Patrick Mahomes, Bo Nix, Kenneth Walker, and Travis Kelce.
SportsLine Model Parlay and DFS Picks
SportsLine's advanced model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has produced a five-team parlay for Week 8 paying around 25-1. One leg backs Over 46.5 points in Jaguars vs. Colts, with the model forecasting 56 combined points and the Over hitting 67% of simulations. The model enters Week 8 on a 58-51 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024 and is up more than $5,000 for $100 players. Its top-rated pick for the week is the Rams (-6.5, 45.5) covering against the Chargers, a play that cashes in 55% of simulations.
For daily fantasy sports, the SportsLine DFS Optimizer highlights Cowboys running back Javonte Williams and Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins among its top picks for the main Sunday slate.
Fantasy Football Rankings
The model's Week 8 fantasy rankings project Jaguars tight end Brenton Strange as a top-8 option at his position. Full positional rankings are available to assist with start-sit decisions.
Expert Picks for Key Games
Larry Harstein, who is 7-2 (+470) on his last nine NFL against-the-spread picks, backs the Detroit Lions (-3) to cover against the Minnesota Vikings. He cites the return of safety Brian Branch, the Vikings' offensive struggles after Aaron Jones' knee injury, and Jared Goff's strong home history against Minnesota.
Emory Hunt, 31-18-2 (+1085) on his last 51 Eagles picks, favors the Washington Commanders (-5) to cover against the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday Night Football, leaning under 45.5 points. He notes the Commanders have had two weeks to prepare for a banged-up Eagles squad missing quarterback Jalen Hurts.
R.J. White, SportsLine's top-rated NFL expert with more than $2,700 returned to $100 bettors since 2017, backs the Seattle Seahawks (-3) to cover against the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football. He points to Seattle's offensive efficiency, Chicago's league-worst 6.3 yards per play allowed on defense, and the Seahawks' elite pass defense that held Kenneth Walker to 2.6 yards per carry in their last meeting.
