Two 5-2 teams in the American Athletic Conference will meet Thursday night when the Florida Atlantic Owls visit the North Texas Mean Green at DATCU Stadium in Denton, Texas. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET.
North Texas enters the game having won all three of its conference contests and riding a four-game winning streak, most recently a 10-point victory over Navy. Florida Atlantic is 2-1 in league play and coming off a 51-49 shootout win over Rice that produced 100 total points.
Betting Odds and Projections
The Mean Green are listed as 14-point favorites, with the over/under set at 77.5 points — one of the highest totals in the FBS this season. The money line has North Texas at -529 and FAU at +425.
According to the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulated the matchup 10,000 times, the Under 77.5 is the recommended play, hitting in 86% of simulations. The model projects a combined 58 points, well below the posted total. It notes that despite both teams ranking among the top four in the conference in passing defense, their run defenses are less stout, and a projected near-300 combined rushing yards could consume clock and limit scoring opportunities.
The model also indicates one side of the point spread covers in well over 50% of simulations, though that specific pick is available only through SportsLine. The model entered Week 9 on a 68-59 record on top-rated college football picks.
