With the College Football Playoff Selection Committee set to release its first top 25 rankings on Nov. 3, a look back at the Bowl Championship Series formula offers a different perspective on the current season.
From 1998 to 2013, the BCS used three equally weighted components — the Harris Interactive Poll, the Coaches Poll, and a composite of computer rankings (Billingsley, Colley, Massey, Sagarin, Wolfe) — to produce a team's BCS score. The AP poll replaced the Harris Interactive Poll in 2004. The four-team playoff began in 2014, expanding to a 12-team bracket in 2024.
Simulated BCS Top 10
A simulated application of the old BCS formula to this season's teams yields the following top 10:
1. Miami – BCS score: 0.9837. The Hurricanes' destruction of Pittsburgh and quarterback Darian Mensah's record-setting efficiency pace the ranking, though their best win is Wake Forest (No. 21 in Sagarin).
2. Ohio State – BCS score: 0.9576. The Buckeyes lead the Massey and Sagarin ratings, but face uncertainty after quarterback Julian Sayin's injury; freshman Luke Fahey takes over with tough games ahead against USC and Northwestern.
3. Indiana – BCS score: 0.8408. Computers favor the Hoosiers despite three of four Big Ten wins by a single possession, including an overtime victory over Michigan with only one completed pass after halftime.
4. Georgia – BCS score: 0.8364. The Bulldogs' lone loss came as a three-touchdown favorite to Auburn; they own a ranked win at Alabama and lead eight SEC teams in the top 17.
5. Notre Dame – BCS score: 0.8043. A last-second loss at BYU barely dented the Fighting Irish's BCS value; wins over Miami and SMU in November could return them to the top-four discussion.
6. UCLA – BCS score: 0.7944. The Bruins are one of three unbeaten teams, but lost quarterback Nico Iamaleava for the season; a ranked win over Wisconsin and a victory over Oregon bolster their case.
7. Utah – BCS score: 0.7730. The Utes received a first-place AP vote despite the worst strength-of-schedule rating in the top 10; they and BYU are the Big 12's best playoff hopes.
8. Kentucky – BCS score: 0.7091. The Wildcats lead the SEC after Week 8 with six straight wins since an opening loss to Alabama, highlighted by an overtime win over LSU on Nov. 10.
9. BYU – BCS score: 0.6017. A win over Notre Dame gave the Cougars a top national victory, but a stumble at UCF dropped their score; a Nov. 7 matchup at Utah looms large.
10. Alabama – BCS score: 0.6313. The Crimson Tide, among several two-loss SEC teams, control their playoff destiny with a relatively favorable schedule, though they must travel to LSU and host Auburn.
Teams 11-25
The remainder of the simulated top 25: 11. Texas (0.6017), 12. LSU (0.5290), 13. Ole Miss (0.5138), 14. Texas Tech (0.4498), 15. Wake Forest (0.4320), 16. Tennessee (0.3542), 17. Florida (0.3154), 18. Houston (0.2503), 19. SMU (0.2338), 20. Arizona (0.2184), 21. Northwestern (0.2119), 22. Boise State (0.1847), 23. Missouri (0.1687), 24. Iowa (0.0929), 25. Wisconsin (0.0820).
Notable observations: Texas holds three top-25 wins per the latest AP poll but ranks 11th in the BCS simulation; the Longhorns lead the nation in strength of schedule per Massey. Boise State is the lone Group of Six representative in the top 25. Wisconsin entered the AP poll after beating USC, which could aid Notre Dame's strength of record. USC faces a gauntlet with Ohio State, Indiana, and UCLA remaining.
