The Kent State Golden Flashes visit the Sacramento State Hornets on Friday night in the first-ever meeting between the programs. Kickoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET at Hornet Stadium in Sacramento, California. Sacramento State (1-7, 0-5 in MAC) is in its first year at the FBS level and has lost six consecutive games, most recently a 34-17 defeat to Ball State. Kent State (3-5, 2-2 in MAC) snapped a three-game losing streak with a 35-20 win over Akron in Week 8.
Kent State enters as a 7-point favorite, with the over/under for total points set at 46.5. The Golden Flashes are listed at -278 on the money line (risk $278 to win $100), while Sacramento State is +225.
According to the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulated the matchup 10,000 times, the Over 46.5 points is the recommended play. When the total is below 50 points, the Over has a 3-1 record for both teams this season. Kent State has seen the Over hit in three of its last four road games, and the total was eclipsed in Sacramento State's most recent home game. The model projects 51 combined points, with the Over connecting in 63% of simulations.
Defensive struggles support the high-scoring expectation. Among 138 FBS teams, Kent State ranks 115th in scoring defense, while Sacramento State ranks 127th. The Hornets have generated the fewest takeaways in college football aside from two other teams, and Kent State allows a 67.4% completion percentage, the eighth-highest in the sport.
The model also indicates one side of the spread hits in nearly 70% of simulations. SportsLine's model entered Week 9 on a 68-59 run on top-rated college football picks, returning nearly $400 for $100 players.
