The Minnesota Vikings enter Week 8 as the NFL's last unbeaten team and will face the Detroit Lions as 3.5-point underdogs on Sunday. Other notable matchups feature one-loss teams, including the 5-1 Kansas City Chiefs against the Denver Broncos (+1.5) and the Baltimore Ravens versus the 5-1 Buffalo Bills (-3), with Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson trending toward a return from an ankle injury.
Divisional games highlight the schedule: Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5), Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5), Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-10), New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+7), and Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders (-5.5) on Sunday Night Football. The Patriots and Chiefs are the only road favorites this week.
A computer model from SportsLine, which simulates each game 10,000 times, has produced five best bets for Week 8. The model entered the week on a 58-51 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024 and has returned more than $5,000 for $100 players since its inception. A parlay of the five selections would pay nearly 25-1.
The model's top pick is the Over 46.5 points in the Colts-Jaguars game, which hits in 66% of simulations. The Over has cashed in six of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, is 6-4 in Indianapolis' last 10 games, and hit in Jacksonville's most recent contest. Jacksonville ranks seventh in scoring at 25.7 points per game, tied with Chicago, while Indianapolis allows 25.7 points per game and recently traded defensive lineman DeForest Buckner.
Indianapolis relies on running back Jonathan Taylor, who has 140 carries for 587 yards (4.2 average) and eight touchdowns. Quarterback Daniel Jones has completed 59.6% of his passes for 1,398 yards, four touchdowns, and seven interceptions. For Jacksonville, Trevor Lawrence has completed 65.2% of his passes for 1,480 yards, 14 touchdowns, four interceptions, and a 106.3 passer rating. Wide receiver Parker Washington has 26 receptions for 416 yards (16.0 average) and four touchdowns.
The model also identified four other matchups where it believes the line is significantly off, including multiple spread picks that hit well over 50% of the time in simulations.
