The NFL survivor pool has thinned significantly after another week where several favorites lost, including the San Francisco 49ers, New York Jets, Carolina Panthers, and Houston Texans, who were 10.5-point favorites over the New York Giants. With four teams on bye, Week 8 features only 14 games.
Popular survivor picks include the Cincinnati Bengals (-11.5) hosting the Tennessee Titans and the Jacksonville Jaguars (-10) hosting the Indianapolis Colts. Other heavy favorites are the New England Patriots (-7) vs. Miami Dolphins, Dallas Cowboys (-7) vs. Arizona Cardinals, and Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each game 10,000 times, has entered Week 8 on a 58-51 run on top-rated picks since 2024, returning over $5,000 for $100 players. The model is not confident in the 5-1 Kansas City Chiefs, who are 1.5-point favorites against the 5-2 Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET. Despite a 31-10 win over Denver in Week 1, the model gives the Chiefs only a 47% win probability, making them a risky survivor pick.
Patrick Mahomes has completed 64.9% of passes for 1,474 yards, nine touchdowns, and four interceptions in six starts. Running back Kenneth Walker III leads the rushing attack with 701 yards and six touchdowns on 120 carries. Denver, the defending AFC West champions, are on a three-game winning streak led by quarterback Bo Nix (59.2% completion, 1,271 yards, seven touchdowns, three interceptions). The model views the game as a 50/50 split.
Instead, the model is backing a less-used team that wins outright in over 70% of simulations. The specific pick is available via SportsLine.
