Week 1 feels like it was eons ago, but Caleb Williams opened the season with 41.3 fantasy points in CBS leagues, the top player in fantasy football. After a hamstring injury in Week 2 sidelined him until Week 6, Williams has led the Bears to a 3-0 record with wins over both of last year's Super Bowl participants. However, his fantasy production has dipped: over his last three games he has averaged 20.2 fantasy points per game, tied with Matthew Stafford for QB15 on the season. The issue is a lack of rushing and touchdowns — just 22 rushing yards and four total touchdowns in that span. The Bears rank 26th in the NFL with eight passing touchdowns but second with 17 rushing touchdowns, reflecting a 62.3% red-zone rush rate, the third-highest in the league.
Week 9 Matchup and Projection
In Week 9 the Bears face a Tampa Bay defense that ranks top-five in points and yards allowed and top-10 against both the run and pass. Early Week 9 projections place Williams as QB16 — not a must-start, but projected to outscore every quarterback available on the waiver wire. Managers with two strong quarterbacks may consider sitting Williams, but he should not be dropped for a waiver-wire replacement.
Numbers to Know
• Tyler Shough is averaging 39 pass attempts per game, keeping him in the top-12 conversation.
• The Broncos are allowing 14.8 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks not named Patrick Mahomes.
• Baker Mayfield has thrown just 14 passes in his last two games combined.
• Malik Willis has a 14.8% off-target rate, the worst among qualified starters.
• Jordan Love has had 23 passes dropped this season; no other quarterback has more than 15.
• Bo Nix is averaging 5.4 air yards per attempt, the lowest in the league.
• Jacoby Brissett has 59 red-zone pass attempts, the most in the NFL; Gardner Minshew could see increased touchdown opportunities.
Waiver Wire Targets
J.J. McCarthy (Giants) — Averaged 10.1 yards per attempt on his first 49 passes. Faces the Eagles (23rd vs. QB) in a tough streaming week, but remains the top waiver-wire add if a start is needed.
Bo Nix (Broncos) — Consensus top streamer with two touchdowns in each of his last two games and a favorable matchup against the Panthers (15th vs. QB). Concern: only one game with over 222 passing yards and multiple passing touchdowns in just two of eight starts.
Geno Smith (Jets) — Stash candidate — Scored 22 fantasy points as the top streamer in Week 8. With a difficult matchup against Kansas City this week, he may be dropped, but Week 10 against Buffalo (which has allowed three quarterbacks to score 31+ points) makes him a prime stash.
DFS Plays
Top Play: Jared Goff (Lions) — Projects as the second-highest quarterback on the main slate behind Brock Purdy. The Dolphins have allowed three straight quarterbacks to score at least 25 fantasy points, and only Kyler Murray failed to reach 19 points against them. Detroit's offense should have ample opportunities.
Contrarian Play: Tyler Shough (Saints) — Faces a Browns defense that struggles against the run but has been strong against the pass. The Saints cannot run effectively and throw at a league-high rate, setting up potential shootout volume for Shough despite possible inefficiency.
Full Week 9 fantasy projections for every position are available and will be updated throughout the week.
