North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Bill Belichick will face the No. 1 ranked team for the first time in his college career when the Miami Hurricanes visit Kenan Stadium on Saturday. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET in Chapel Hill, N.C.
The Hurricanes (7-0, 5-0 ACC) are one of three undefeated FBS teams and enter on an 11-game regular-season winning streak after a 53-23 victory over Pittsburgh. North Carolina (4-3, 2-2 ACC) has already matched last season's win total but comes off a 31-30 overtime loss to Syracuse. The Tar Heels have won the last five meetings between the programs, which last played in 2023.
Odds and Betting Trends
Miami is a 14-point favorite with an over/under of 53.5 points. The money line lists Miami at -625 and North Carolina at +455. The Hurricanes are 5-2 against the spread this season, while the Tar Heels are 4-3.
Model Predictions
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each game 10,000 times, leans toward the under on the total points. Miami's offense draws attention, but the Hurricanes also rank 11th nationally in scoring defense, allowing just 2.4 yards per rush and recording nine takeaways. North Carolina ranks 112th out of 138 FBS teams in total offense.
UNC's defense, a hallmark of Belichick-coached teams, has held back-to-back opponents below a 60% completion percentage and averages the fourth-fewest penalties per game in college football. The model projects Miami quarterback Darian Mensah, who averages over three passing touchdowns per game, to be held under two passing scores, with the under hitting in 53% of simulations. The model also indicates one side of the spread hits in over 60% of simulations.
Entering Week 9, the model carries a 68-59 record on top-rated college football picks, returning nearly $400 for $100 players.
