The Toledo Rockets (6-2, 3-1 MAC) visit the Sacramento State Hornets (2-7, 1-5 MAC) for a Mid-American Conference matchup Wednesday at 7 p.m. ET at Hornet Stadium in Sacramento, California. Toledo enters on a 45-38 win over Western Michigan on Oct. 24, while Sacramento State beat Kent State 31-10 on Friday. The Rockets are 2-1 on the road this season; the Hornets are 2-3 at home in 2026.
Oddsmakers list Toledo as a 25-point favorite with an over/under of 52.5 points. The money line sits at Toledo -2857 and Sacramento State +1550.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each FBS game 10,000 times, projects the total to stay under 52.5 points. The under has hit in two of Toledo's last three games and in six of Sacramento State's last nine. The model forecasts 52 combined points, giving the under a 53% value probability. It also projects Toledo quarterback John Alan Richter to throw for over 260 yards and two touchdowns (2,244 yards, 17 TDs on the season) and Sacramento State running back Isaiah Ene to rush for over 50 yards and a touchdown (410 yards, 5.3 avg, 3 TDs on 77 carries).
Beyond the total, the model indicates one side of the spread hits in well over 70% of simulations, though that specific pick is available only via SportsLine. The model entered Week 10 on an 80-77 run on top-rated college football picks.
