The UEFA Champions League reaches its midpoint on Wednesday with a flurry of high-stakes fixtures. The competition has produced a surge of goals in recent rounds, but Liverpool's prolific European form — 12 goals in three matches — contrasts sharply with their Premier League output of just 11 goals in nine games. Real Betis remain one of four teams with a perfect record, though their 100% start will be tested away to Borussia Dortmund. At the bottom, Porto sit 35th with zero points and likely need a win against Napoli to keep knockout hopes alive. Real Madrid, Arsenal and Manchester City are also in action on a packed evening.
Liverpool's attacking concerns
Despite the Champions League tally, Liverpool's underlying numbers raise questions. Bradley Barcola, Florian Wirtz and Dominik Szoboszlai have shared the scoring in Europe, yet the team ranks 11th in the Premier League for expected goals (xG). Their average shot xG is well below the top-five-league average of 0.111, with just under 40% of attempts coming from outside the box and a league-high 37.9% of shots blocked. Cody Gakpo, Wirtz, Szoboszlai and Barcola have combined for two league goals from 5.24 xG. Manager Andoni Iraola's previous side, Bournemouth, ranked highly for xG per shot last season, suggesting the current issues may be transitional rather than structural. The European goals have come against favorable opposition — away to LASK and home to Villarreal — yielding 12 goals from 7.23 xG with a 25% block rate, so a sudden switch in form is not guaranteed.
Porto's must-win against Napoli
Porto's defeat at home to Napoli would not mathematically eliminate them, but projection models indicate nine points typically marks the knockout cut-off after eight games. With only Slavia Prague (away) and LASK (home) as seemingly winnable fixtures remaining, plus trips to Feyenoord and Liverpool, dropping points tonight would be near-fatal. Francesco Farioli's side have been competitive — drawing level with Manchester City until Erling Haaland's late winner, losing late to Real Betis, and falling to a single PSV chance — but their attacking volume is alarming: just 30 shots worth 2.7 xG across three matches. Strikers Samu Aghehowa and Andre Silva have four shots combined; Gabri Veiga has five; Borja Sainz, who averages nearly 3.5 shots per game domestically, has yet to attempt one in the Champions League. Farioli acknowledged the gap: "The Champions League is a different competition. The demands and the details make all the difference. Being effective at every moment is important... we can do more, because this isn't enough."
Guirassy's threat against Real Betis
Borussia Dortmund's Serhou Guirassy arrives in strong form, having scored 40 goals in his last 71 league games and 23 in 31 Champions League appearances (seven penalties). His 0.63 non-penalty xG per 90 minutes underscores his efficiency. Notably, Guirassy has scored in every meeting with Spanish opposition, including a hat-trick against Barcelona in 2025. At 6ft 2in, his physical profile poses problems for defences that lack aerial dominance. Real Betis have conceded just over 2.5 xG in three European games against Lille, Porto and Feyenoord, but in La Liga they rank 18th for set-piece xG allowed and set-piece goals conceded, and are not strong at limiting touches and xG in the box. Wednesday's clash could provide another productive night for the Guinean striker.
