Major League Baseball teams could spark an early free-agent frenzy in November as the current collective bargaining agreement expires on Dec. 1, raising the prospect of a lockout.
Lessons from the 2021 lockout
In November 2021, MLB clubs committed more than $1.7 billion to free agents before the last CBA expired and owners locked out players. The Texas Rangers alone spent over $560 million on Jon Gray, Corey Seager, and Marcus Semien, who later helped the franchise win its first World Series title in 2023. Five players signed nine-figure contracts in the weeks leading up to that lockout, and more than 140 players became free agents the day after the World Series. Many prefer to sign before a work stoppage to secure housing and schooling for their families.
NPB players face a hard deadline
This offseason, MLB has declined to amend its posting agreement with Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball league, meaning NPB players posted on Nov. 1 must sign by Dec. 1 or return to Japan for 2027. Three top-50 free agents — Hanshin Tigers third baseman Teruaki Sato, Seibu Lions right-hander Kaima Taira, and Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters right-hander Hiromi Itoh — lose the usual 45-day negotiating window because contracts cannot be signed during a lockout.
Skubal expected to trigger domino effect
Tarik Skubal, regarded as the best free agent on the market, is expected to sign before the lockout, according to ESPN. Several big spenders, including the Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers, and New York Mets, are pursuing him. The teams that miss out could quickly pivot to secondary targets such as Freddy Peralta and Trevor Rogers, creating a rush for remaining starting pitchers.
New CBA rules likely to be phased in
Even if a salary cap is adopted in the next CBA, it would probably be phased in over several years. Big-payroll clubs like the Dodgers, Mets, and New York Yankees cannot trim payroll immediately, so November may be the last chance for all teams to spend freely and have contracts grandfathered into the new system. Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro told Sportsnet last month: "You prepare under the current system, and then you adjust along the way. Any new system adopted, there will be a timeframe for adjustment into that system. I don't think any new system adopted would cause for immediate action."
