The NFL season reaches its unofficial midway point this weekend, and teams hoping to remain relevant for the final two months of the regular season are seeing their margin for error shrink exponentially. No division is more competitive than the NFC North, where the last-place Green Bay Packers (5-3) would qualify for the playoffs if they began today. The NFC North has a legitimate chance to become the first division in the current conference alignment to send four teams to the postseason, but none can afford many slip-ups outside the division.
Packers at Patriots
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET on Fox. The Packers (56% playoff chance) and Patriots (63%) both currently hold the No. 7 seeds in their conferences. A win would raise Green Bay's chances to 67% and New England's to 73%, while a loss would drop them to 46% and 51% respectively. Quarterbacks Jordan Love and Drake Maye headline a matchup that could define the second half of the season for both teams. The Patriots face a brutal upcoming stretch including games at Detroit, at Los Angeles Chargers, vs. Buffalo, vs. Minnesota, and at Kansas City. The Packers' schedule features games at New England, vs. Minnesota, and at the Los Angeles Rams.
Rams at Commanders
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on Fox. The 4-4 Rams (28% playoff chance) and Commanders (31%) are both fighting to stay above .500. A win would boost Los Angeles to 39% and Washington to 42%; a loss would drop them to 18% and 22%. The Rams, preseason Super Bowl favorites, have won two straight and cannot afford many more losses. The Commanders remain in the mix in the NFC East, with a crucial Week 10 game against the New York Giants looming.
Buccaneers at Bears
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC. The Buccaneers (54% playoff chance) and Bears (87%) meet in a primetime showdown. A win would raise Tampa Bay to 67% and Chicago to 92%; a loss would drop them to 48% and 77%. Chicago has won three straight, including a statement victory over Seattle, and sits at 6-2. Tampa Bay has won three of four after an 0-4 start, fueled by a dominant running game and strong defense. The NFC North is historically strong, while the NFC South remains wide open.
Cardinals at Seahawks
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET on Fox. The Cardinals (2% playoff chance) visit the Seahawks (58%). A win would give Arizona a 6% chance and Seattle 63%; a loss would drop them to 1% and 38%. Seattle, also 4-4, needs to take care of business at home after a slow start. Arizona, coming off a Gardner Minshew-led comeback win over Dallas, looks to play spoiler.
Bengals at Falcons (in Spain)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET on NFL Network. The Bengals (89% playoff chance) and Falcons (21%) meet in the NFL's international game in Spain. A win would raise Cincinnati to 93% and Atlanta to 30%; a loss would drop them to 83% and 15%. Cincinnati aims to keep pace in the AFC North, while Atlanta seeks to stay in the NFC South race alongside Tampa Bay and Carolina.
