An NFL computer model that has returned more than $5,000 for $100 players on top-rated picks since its inception enters Week 9 of the 2026 season on a 60-51 run dating back to 2024. The model has identified five confident best bets for the week's slate, with a successful parlay offering a potential payout of nearly +3000.
The model's top pick is the Over 39.5 points in the Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks matchup, which hits in 76% of simulations. The Seahawks rank 11th in scoring at 24.0 points per game, while the Cardinals average 21.9 points per game, 21st in the league. Arizona will start Gardner Minshew at quarterback after Jacoby Brissett was traded to Baltimore. Running back Tyler Allgeier leads the ground game with 72 carries for 323 yards and two touchdowns, including a 147-yard, one-touchdown performance against Dallas in Week 8. Tight end Trey McBride paces the passing attack with 66 receptions for 544 yards and five touchdowns.
Seattle will turn to Drew Lock in place of Sam Darnold (quad), who is out for the week. Lock previously guided the Seahawks to 31 points in a start this season and will have top target Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has 64 receptions for 985 yards and nine touchdowns.
Other key Week 9 matchups include the unbeaten Minnesota Vikings as 3-point home underdogs against the AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football, the 6-1 San Francisco 49ers hosting the Las Vegas Raiders as 10-point favorites, and the Los Angeles Rams visiting the Washington Commanders (+4.5), Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers (+5.5), and Tampa Bay Buccaneers favored by 6 over the Chicago Bears on Sunday Night Football. The Chargers have lost 10 consecutive games dating back to last season.
The model has also identified four additional spread picks that hit well over 50% of the time in simulations.
