The Baltimore Ravens aim to snap a two-game losing streak when they host the Buffalo Bills in a high-profile NFL Week 8 matchup. Quarterback Lamar Jackson, who has missed the last three games, carries no injury designation and is set to rejoin an offense that also features running back Derrick Henry and wide receiver Zay Flowers. The Bills, meanwhile, enter the game leading the league in scoring at 32.8 points per game and are coming off a bye week.
Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET at New Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. The latest odds list Buffalo as a 3-point favorite, with an over/under of 54.5 total points. Jackson's passing yardage prop is set at 237.5 yards.
A proven simulation model that runs 10,000 iterations per game projects the over 54.5 points as the top play. The over has hit in all but one Bills game this season, a trend supported by Buffalo's league-best offense and a defense allowing 28.5 points per game, the third-most in the NFL. That combination averages over 60 total points per game. The Ravens' offense managed only 13 and 10 points in their last two outings without Jackson, but in his three full starts Baltimore scored 41 and 34 points in two games, with those contests finishing at 65 and 64 total points. The model projects 58 combined points, giving the over a 55% value probability.
The model also identifies one side of the point spread as offering better value, though the specific side is not disclosed publicly. Since its inception, the model has returned more than $5,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks and entered Week 8 on a 58-51 run on top-rated selections dating back to 2024.
